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This post was originally posted at The New Democrat on Blogger

Just to sort of follow-up on what I was talking about yesterday and the U.S. Senate elections. Senate Republicans should win back the Senate on Tuesday, probably six or seven seats. Or maybe they only win five, but somehow Larry Pressler who is an Independent in North Dakota, wins that Senate election and decides to caucus with Republicans. Giving Senate Republicans a 50-48 and 2 majority. Or similar scenario but Independent Senator Angus King decides to caucus with the Republicans instead of the Democrats.

But as The McLaughlin Group pointed out which is why I’m leaving some hope for Senate Democrats, there are still a couple of critical factors that could save the Senate for Democrats. Michelle Nunn wins the Senate seat in Georgia, Gregg Orman wins in Kansas. Mary Landrieu doesn’t win Louisiana, but Representative Bill Cassidy doesn’t win a majority, forcing the election into a December runoff. Kay Hagan holds the steady lead she’s had for over a year over Tom Tillis in North Carolina and the same thing with Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire over Scott Brown.

Under the reasonable scenarios I just put out, Senate Democrats could lose every other seat that is in play for Republican pickups and still retain the Senate with a 50-50 plus Vice President Joe Biden majority. Keep in mind, only Mary Landrieu is either down barley or tied with her opponent. And she is a great campaigner and has a great campaign machine and Democrats have a great get out the vote operation. And Senator Landrieu has already won a runoff back in 2002 in a big Republican year where Democrats lost the Senate that gave Republicans a united Congress.

Under any other election year and scenario with an unpopular President in Barack Obama that I voted twice for and don’t regret those votes or would change for anything, we should not only be talking about Republicans winning the Senate, but are they going to win 8 or 10 seats. Not 5-7 and giving Democrats life in the Senate. Along with House Republicans picking up twenty or more seats and padding their majority. That is not happening because of the unpopularity of the Republican Party with their candidates and that they have weak incumbents as well.

U.S. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee