This post was originally posted at FreeStatePlus on WordPress, January, 2012

National Journal: Opinion: Ron Brownstein: Good News and Bad News For Newt Gingrich in Florida

What difference a debate can make, or how about, if you’re a football fan, you’re familiar with term, “live by the blitz, die by the blitz”. Meaning for you English speakers, football teams that base their defense on blitzing, are successful and unsuccessful based on how they blitz. They do well and get burned by it and when you’re a presidential candidate, who’s had most of his success so far based on his debating skills and quick wit and being able to turn things around on other people, you have to win the debates to win elections.

You should have enough hints about who I’m talking about by now. And you have a bad debate, an off night however you want to put it, as a result you get burned by the debate, just like Newt Gingrich has had a lot of success in previous debates, practically winning all of them, Newt had such and off night last Thursday, he’s probably going to lose Florida tomorrow. And it’s just a matter of how much, 10 points being the key. Under or over for Newt.

The good news for Newt is that over weekend, he’s picked up some key endorsements. From Sarah Palin, Herman Cain, some Tea Party groups. Cuban Floridians seem to like him, that won’t pull Florida out for Newt. But may be able to keep Mitt Romney’s victory under ten points. And give the Newter Campaign with a floor in how far they can drop. So they rebuild their momentum going forward and be a factor in Nevada and other key states that are coming up.

Especially in caucus states like Minnesota, where Newt’s style of campaigning, talking and listening to people up front, giving interviews and of course the debates and these endorsements could help Newt be a big factor in these up incoming primaries by getting people to the polls for him. The other good news for Newt is even though he’s fallen, Rick Santorum and Ron Pau haven’t given up and Newt’s been picking up some new endorsements.

And there will be more pressure on Rick Sanrtorum to step down and endorse Newt. Especially if Santorum has a bad night tomorrow. So Newt will still be able to target Mitt and go after the Santorum supporters and bring them with him. Especially if he beats the odds tomorrow night. And doesn’t get blown out in a Florida hurricane, pun intended.